A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
