Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
